Uncertainty Analysis
Uncertainty Analysis Objective: This lecture explores the concept of uncertainty analysis, its definitions, methodologies, and applications in Construction Engineering and Management (CEM). 1. What is Uncertainty Analysis? Uncertainty analysis involves identifying, quantifying, and analyzing uncertainties that may impact the outcomes of a system, process, or decision. In construction engineering, it helps assess risks and variabilities inherent in materials, methods, and environmental factors. Definition: According to Morgan and Henrion (1990), uncertainty analysis is "a process used to identify and evaluate the uncertainty in model outputs due to the uncertainty in input parameters." Key Features: Quantification: Measures the degree of uncertainty. Impact Assessment: Evaluates how uncertainty affects project outcomes. Decision Support: Guides risk-informed decisions. 2. Sources of Uncertainty in Construction Material Properties: Variability in material strength, durabi...